Yourdon explains that programmers in the 1960s deliberately truncated year fields to two digits, assuming the software would be replaced long before 2000. He reports that according to metrics expert Capers Jones, the point of no return for fixing the problem passed at the beginning of 1998, with only 25 percent of programmers at major companies currently assigned to Y2K work. He identifies the "iron triangle" of utilities, telecommunications, and banking as the critical systems at risk, revealing that zero out of 7,300 U.S. utility companies are currently Y2K compliant.
Yourdon shares his personal preparations, including leaving the stock market and relocating from New York City to Taos, New Mexico. He predicts regional blackouts, dirty power conditions lasting weeks, and a recession potentially rivaling the Great Depression.
Key Moments
Yourdon: we have already passed the point of no return on Y2K: Yourdon says software-engineering metrics specialist Capers Jones has shown that even if at the start of 1998 the U.S. had assigned 80–85 percent of all programmers to Y2K full time, fixes might have finished - but that didn't happen, and the work won't be done in time.
April 1, 1999 fiscal-year rollover as Y2K dress rehearsal: Yourdon points to April 1, 1999 - the start of the financial year for Japan, Canada and New York State - as the first 'objective reality' test of Y2K remediation, with New York State already on track to finish only half its mission-critical systems.
The Y2K iron triangle: power, phones, banks: Yourdon defines the 'iron triangle' of Y2K risk - utilities, telecommunications and banking - and tells listeners that if they wake up on New Year's morning to dark lights, dead phones and closed banks, everything else is secondary.
All 108 U.S. nuclear plants non-compliant; embedded systems risk: Yourdon tells Bell that none of the roughly 7,300 U.S. utility companies - including all 108 nuclear power plants - are Y2K compliant, and that each plant has 10,000–20,000 embedded systems that the NRC has only treated as advisory rather than required.
Yourdon explains his move from New York to Taos as Y2K hedge: Yourdon confirms that Y2K was a partial reason he and his wife moved up their plan to leave New York City for Taos, New Mexico, deciding he wanted to be somewhere he could stay indefinitely if needed because cities like New York, Boston or Chicago could 'get pretty bad.'