Episode 1106 · Jul 18, 2004 · 2h 51m
July 18, 2004: China and U.S. War Scenarios - Charles Smith
Key Moments
Open transcriptBigelow, Great Wall Industries and the China Army connectionSmith explains that Bigelow Aerospace was negotiating with Great Wall Industries, a division of 'China Army, Inc.' previously sanctioned for passing ballistic missile technology, and ties the firm directly to the Central Military Command via FOIA documents.
Hughes, radiation-hardened chips and Chinese missile accuracySmith details how Hughes, Loral and Lockheed Martin lobbied to move space export controls to Commerce, allowing radiation-hardened chip technology to flow to China and modernize their nuclear-capable DF-5 ICBMs from clockwork mechanisms to precision weapons.
Sizing the Chinese ICBM arsenal aimed at AmericaSmith puts a hard number on the threat: roughly 30 Chinese ICBMs, 20 with 1 to 5 megaton thermonuclear warheads, 10 MIRVed at 100 kilotons each, and Chinese doctrine that using half on 20 U.S. cities would cause 80 to 120 million American casualties.
Smuggled PLA documents threaten nuclear use over TaiwanSmith says a Chinese army officer smuggled out Central Military Commission documents showing Beijing had already threatened nuclear war if the U.S. intervenes over Taiwan and was prepared to send a million troops with a 10-to-1 loss rate.
First strike would be an EMP-style nuclear weaponCiting DoD, the U.S.-China Commission and analyst Richard Fisher, Smith says Chinese first use would likely be a high-altitude nuclear weapon designed to disable American electronic systems, prompting Art's instant recognition: the EMP pulse weapon.
The conversation centers on detailed war scenarios between the United States and China over Taiwan. Smith explains Chinese military doctrine, including their willingness to absorb massive casualties and their threat to vaporize Los Angeles if the U.S. interferes with a Taiwan invasion. He describes the Summer Pulse 04 carrier battle group exercises designed to counter Chinese assumptions about American military response times.
Smith argues that the most effective deterrent against China is not mutual assured destruction but targeted strikes against the Chinese leadership and command structure. He explains how the totalitarian nature of the Chinese military, with its tight political control over nuclear warheads and lack of independent decision-making, makes a decapitation strategy particularly effective against Beijing's war planners.
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