January 18, 2004: Trends for 2004 - Gerald Celente

Art Bell welcomes Gerald Celente, founder and director of the Trends Research Institute, for a wide-ranging forecast of the year ahead. Celente lays out his methodology of tracking current events to project future developments, applying what he calls the "5-O formula" of overcapacity, overproduction, overpopulation, open markets, and online efficiencies to explain why American workers face a prolonged decline in wages and benefits. He predicts the beginning of what he terms "the great recession," a decade-long period of shrinking living standards for roughly 80% of the population.

On Iraq, Celente forecasts a protracted guerrilla war that will eventually exhaust American willingness to fight, predicting a form of mutiny among older reservists and National Guard members who have careers and families waiting at home. He places a 90% probability on a major terrorist attack against the United States, warning that such an event would trigger a severe economic downturn and potentially martial law, with further erosion of constitutional rights.

Art steers the conversation toward opportunities within these grim projections. Celente identifies growth in luxury goods serving the top 20% of earners, clean and organic food markets, real estate bolstered by sustained low interest rates, and gold as a hedge against the declining dollar. He also predicts a revival of vibrant, upbeat entertainment and music, drawing parallels to the swing era that flourished during the Great Depression.